The United States and Mexico, representing two of the three host countries of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, were the first to reach the knockout stage of the tournament after their second matches in the group stage. For the first time in the history of the World Cup, knockout matches this year will begin from the 1/16 finals due to the increased number of participants.
The Mexican team was the first to overcome the group stage of the 2026 World Cup, beating South Korea 1-0 on June 18 at the Akron Stadium in the Mexican city of Zapopan. On Friday, June 19, the US team won their match against Australia in Seattle (Washington) with a score of 2-0.
The results of these meetings, including victories in the first matches of the tournament, allowed the USA and Mexico to gain a foothold at the top of the tables of their Groups A and D, respectively. As ESPN notes, the new system for holding the World Cup and the situation in other groups do not yet allow us to accurately predict their opponents at the 1/16 stage.
Mexico will definitely not leave first place in its group, regardless of the results of the final third matches of the group stage and will play with the team that finishes in third place in Group C, E, F, H or I. According to the FusionSim portal, which simulates all the results of World Cup matches, Scotland will be Mexico's opponent with a probability of 26.5%.
The US team still has the opportunity to lose first place in the group if Türkiye beats Paraguay in the second match of the group stage, and also defeats the Americans in the third match. In this case, the American team will drop to second place in the group and will play with the team that will take second place in Group G. It includes New Zealand, Belgium, Egypt, as well as Iran, with which the United States is trying to resolve the military conflict that began in February of this year.
The FusionSim portal, however, estimates the likelihood of the USA meeting Iran at the stage of the 1/16 finals of the World Cup at only 2.4%. The analytical tool selects Bosnia and Herzegovina (40%) and Qatar (28.4%) as the most likely opponents of the American team.
