About 3.6 million babies were born in the United States in 2025, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released in April. It is estimated that out of 1,000 women of reproductive age, only 53 have given birth. Experts note that this figure has been declining by about 1% for almost 20 years.
If in 2007 the total fertility rate was 2.1, then in 2025 it will be 1.57. Against this background, Megan McArdle of the Washington Post even notes a decline in the number of school graduates. The rate peaked in 2025, but “the U.S. will no longer see as many graduates,” McArdle writes. According to forecasts, in 2041 there will be 13% fewer graduates.
Experts have long been sounding the alarm about the decline in the US birth rate. The trend threatens many negative consequences: not only declining organic population growth, but also a shrinking labor force, slowing productivity growth, growing budgetary pressure due to the retirement of baby boomers (one of the largest generations in American history), and a Social Security crisis (due to the fact that fewer young workers are contributing to the pension system). Even schools may close due to the aforementioned drop in student numbers. One of the delayed results is a general decline in living standards.
Separately, we note the collapsed birth rate under the age of 20 – minus 72% since 2007, according to the same CDC data. Women today give birth later and less often: most often at the age of 35-44 years.
The government is trying to fight the demographic crisis. As RTVI.US reported, already in February 2025, shortly after his return to the Oval Office, US President Donald Trump ordered to cut aid to states with low birth rates and a small number of new marriages. True, it turned out that those regions that supported the Republican in the 2024 presidential election received more money. The 11 states with the lowest birth rates and the District of Columbia then voted for Democrat Kamala Harris, Trump's opponent.
CNN notes that the Trump administration's anti-immigration actions, in turn, also have a negative impact on demographics in the United States. Partly because of this, population growth of 1% in 2023 and 2024 was replaced by 0.3% in 2025, according to economists interviewed by the channel. McArdle also writes that the decline in the birth rate in the United States forces us to look more closely at the possibility of letting in more immigrants.
However, a decline in the birth rate is observed throughout the world. In some places it is due to the growing prosperity of society, increasing levels of education and decreasing infant mortality, but the same trends are also observed in poorer countries. In Mexico, for example, according to official data, the birth rate is now lower than in the United States. So there are many reasons: the economic and social uncertainty faced by the younger generation, emancipation and the fact that women today have better control over their reproductive lives (which is why, for example, there are fewer unplanned pregnancies). Also, do not forget about demographic cycles in history.
Financial Times (FT) columnist John Byrne-Murdoch attributes the declining birth rate trend to the growing popularity of social media and the proliferation of smartphones. And it’s not just about the fact that young people prefer the Internet to live communication. The author calls one of the unobvious consequences of information consumption that young women (unlike men) are increasingly moving to the left on the scale of political preferences. This causes an ideological split that is not conducive to pair-building. In addition, demographers note that sexual dysfunction is more common among young people who actively use social networks.
Experts disagree on options for dealing with the emerging problem. Demographers emphasize that there is no simple solution. Even countries with extensive programs to support families, from tax breaks to direct payments, often fail to achieve sustainable growth in the number of births. Therefore, the United States will likely be forced to find a balance between stimulating the birth rate, economic reforms and immigration policy.
