By February, more than 450,000 people could die due to rising temperatures caused by a powerful El Niño, according to a forecast by The Climate Impact Lab. The mortality estimate covers the period from June 2026 to February 2027—it is up to this point that the available temperature forecasts are calculated. The most severe impacts are expected in the Sahel countries, Southeast Asia, as well as India and Brazil. The United States is among the top 20 hardest-hit countries, with about 3,500 excess heat-related deaths predicted.
The report's authors analyzed the relationship between air temperature and increased mortality from heat in 24,378 regions of the world. They compared the data obtained with forecasts for rising temperatures due to El Niño in the coming months, and used the average monthly number of deaths from heat in the period from 1996 to 2025 as a baseline.
Climatologists predict that average temperatures around the world will be about 1.2°C above normal in the coming months. This is largely due to the current strong El Niño, which began in June and is expected to last until spring 2027 in the Northern Hemisphere.
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle that causes temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to be at least 0.9°F (0.5°C) above normal. As early as Monday, September 21, the temperature excursion reached 5.54°F (3.08°C), the highest ever recorded for the event, with the expected peak still months away. Because of the extreme strength of the current phenomenon, scientists are calling it a “Godzilla-level El Niño.”
In the Sahel, Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad could be hit the hardest by the heat wave. Cumulatively, about 66,800 additional deaths are projected there.
In addition, researchers estimate that the heat could lead to about 19,400 deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, and about the same number in Indonesia.
In India, according to the forecast, about 15,800 people could die due to the heat, in Brazil – about 13,300.
As the report says, the abnormally high temperatures that humanity will experience during the current El Niño can be considered a kind of “postcard from the future.” Today they are perceived as rare, but in a few decades they may become the norm.
In this regard, the authors of the report call for more active implementation of adaptation measures now. These include early warning systems, health and social support for vulnerable populations, the creation of cooling centers and drinking water points, protecting workers from extreme heat, and expanding the capacity of health systems.
“Strengthening our emergency response and better targeting our efforts could save many lives this year. But 20 years from now, when today's extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don't want to be living in emergency mode all the time. Efforts must be mobilized now to develop, implement and evaluate tools that will save lives in the years to come,” said report co-author Dr. Tamma Carlton of the University of California, Berkeley.
