The national teams of Spain and France are the main favorites for the 2026 FIFA World Cup (WC), which started on Thursday, June 11, in Mexico City (Mexico). This opinion was reached by American and British bookmakers, according to ESPN and the Oddschecker website, as well as users of the Polymarket platform.
This year’s World Cup is being held in three countries for the first time: Mexico, Canada and the USA. American cities will host the largest number of matches – 78 out of 104, including the final at East Rutherford Stadium near New York.
According to American bookmakers, the Spanish national team has the best chance of lifting the trophy on July 19, for which young Barcelona stars Lamin Yamal and Pedri, as well as Ballon d'Or winner and Manchester City midfielder Rodri, will play. The closest pursuer of the Spaniards in this ranking is the French team, whose captain is Real Madrid star Kylian Mbappe.
As ESPN notes, bookmakers have reported that up to half of the bets on the World Cup winner are placed on these two teams. Moreover, according to DraftKings Sportsbook data, which the channel provides, we are talking about odds of +450 for Spain and +500 for France. In percentage terms, the probability of victory for each team is thus estimated at 17-18%.
Comparable figures are provided by the Oddschecker website, which aggregates data from British bookmakers, but Spain’s chances at the time of writing this material are estimated to be higher than those of their American counterparts – at 23 to 5, which corresponds to 21%. On the Polymarket website, where bets are made according to the exchange principle, the championship of Spain and France is predicted almost equally with a probability of 16-17%. Previously, users of this site correctly predicted Donald Trump's victory in the US elections and some other world events.
All three platforms identically assessed the chances of the current world champion Argentina, led by Lionel Messi, to repeat the success – at 9%. The chances of the England national team with new coach Thomas Tuchel, as well as Portugal with 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, who refuses to retire, are assessed slightly higher (11-12%) on both sides of the ocean.
ESPN points out that in the entire history of the World Cup, only three times have bookmakers guessed the winner of the World Cup before the start. This happened in 1974 with the West German national team, in 1994 with Brazil, and most recently with Spain in 2010, when Xavi, Iniesta and Fernando Torres played for them.
The main “dark horse” for all the calculations was Italy, which began competing at the World Cup in 1982 with a odds of 18 to 1 – that is, a little more than 5% probability of winning the championship. On the Oddschecker website, the national teams of Germany and the Netherlands now have comparable indicators.
Bookmakers consider the teams of Curacao, Jordan, Haiti and New Zealand to be absolute outsiders. By betting on the championship of Uzbekistan (the only representative of the post-Soviet space), you can win 2,000 times more with a probability of 0.05%.
Among the host countries of the championship, Mexico has the best chance of lifting the trophy (about 2%). The chances of the US team winning the World Cup are slightly better estimated by American bookmakers – 60 to 1 versus 66 to 1 on the British platform.
