Bookmakers have improved their forecasts for the US team after the team reaches the playoffs of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Despite losing to Turkey in the final group stage match, the Americans finished second in Group D and will play Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32.
As New York Post sports journalist Mike Turay notes, the odds for the United States to win the tournament have dropped from 55/1 to 35/1. The team's chances of reaching the final also increased: the odds decreased from 20/1 to 14/1. Bookmakers now estimate the likelihood of reaching the semi-finals to be higher than before the start of the tournament.
The reason for revising expectations was the performance of the United States in the group. Mauricio Pochettino's team beat Paraguay and Australia, and the defeat from Turkey with a score of 2:3 did not prevent them from reaching the playoffs – but showed that the team still has problems in defense.
Team USA will play Bosnia and Herzegovina on July 2 in Santa Clara. If they win, the United States could face Belgium in the round of 16, with a possible matchup with Spain in the quarterfinals.
At the same time, forecast markets remain cautious. According to Polymarket, the United States has about a 2% chance of winning the World Cup. The main contenders for the title are France – 23%, Argentina – 21% and Spain – 11%. On the Kalshi exchange, the chances of winning the World Cup for countries not included in the top 10 FIFA rankings (including the USA) are estimated at 39%.
Betonline rates a US win at +3000, while France is at +350 and England and Spain at +750. According to oddchecker, based on a comparison of odds from more than 25 bookmakers, the United States has a 40/1 chance of winning the World Cup, while England and Spain have an 8/1 chance and France a 6/1 chance.
On the agenda in the forecast markets are bets on the status of the winner of the Golden Boot, which with a probability of 52% could be Argentine forward Lionel Messi, and the question of who will perform at half-time of the World Cup final – the British rock band Coldplay or pop singer Justin Bieber.
